July 2010
July 29, 2010
(Syndicated to Kansas newspapers July 26, 2010)Getting to know you…
It’ll be a week until Kansas Democrats learn whether they’ve essentially won the Kansas Republican primary election.
What? How can Democrats win the Republicans-only primary elections for Kansas House seats and statewide offices?
Simply by watching for districts where the opposite party has elected as its candidate for the November general election someone who is way too conservative, maybe even radical, to be accepted by the larger voter pool of the general election.
It happens.
And it happens to Democrats, too, that the primary, essentially the warm-up pitching for the big game in November, winds up forwarding to the general election a candidate who, while maybe locally popular among the party faithful just doesn’t show up on issues that are important to the general election crowd.
That’s probably because many Kansans see the legislative race primaries as almost a distraction during the hectic get-in-that-vacation after summer baseball and soccer leagues for the kids end and getting ready for school when the entire calendar of many Kansas families changes.
Ask many parents, and there are just two seasons: school season and summer vacation, when everything goes by schedule.
Democrats, the minority party in about 100 House districts in Kansas, generally don’t have much to vote on down-ballot, after the statewide races. Unless something surprising happens, like a long-term incumbent retiring, Democrats tend to have one candidate per office. That gives them the summer off while Republicans are sweating on doorsteps across the state.
The Republicans, well, there are more of them, and they emerge from their primary scraps with the occasional candidate who is strong within the party, or the primary election-voting fraction of it, to win but get beaten in the general.
One reason? Probably that Democrats don’t get the mailings from Republicans and Republicans don’t get the mailings from Democrats in the primary election cycle. That makes sense; why waste valuable campaign resources on voters who can’t vote for you in the primary election. But it also means that unless you swap campaign mail with a neighbor of the opposite party, you really don’t learn how tough a candidate your party’s nominee is going to have to face off against.
It might mean that a loyal Republican learns that a Democrat is for an overwhelmingly important issue to that voter, or that a Democrat learns that his/her party’s candidate is silent on something very important to the voter.
Think that might make a difference? Who knows? But it seems logical that if all you read is Republican campaign stuff or Democratic campaign stuff, you won’t be able to see where the candidates agree on issues, and what issues that are important to you that either candidate is “right” on or at least bothers to mention.
Chances are good if you know each party’s candidates, there’s less chance that Democrats will wind up getting an advantage from Republican primary voters, and that Republicans will find themselves with candidates who are out of the loop of the general election voters’ interests.
Good time to swap mail with a neighbor…
July 22, 2010
(Syndicated to Kansas newspapers July 19, 2010)The other election
While most Kansans are waiting for the Aug. 3 primary election and the general election in November, some of us Statehouse insiders are looking forward to the election of the Speaker of the House of Representatives.
We might get some clues from the primary election, which will be months before the generally early-December meeting of Republican and Democratic caucuses in the House to elect leadership.
Can’t tell yet, of course, but after the primary, and knowing the proclivities of voters of individual districts (not what foods they favor, or anything personal, but whether at the general election the district has proven in the past to elect Republicans or Democrats), we’ll have a hunch which way the general election will go.
That leads up to the election of the House Speaker.
Current Speaker Mike O’Neal, R-Hutchinson, was nominated in 2008 to be Speaker—in a secret-ballot election in the House Republican caucus—by a vote of 41 to 36 and in January 2009 routinely confirmed by the full House. That’s a five-vote margin within the caucus.
Depending on which House Republicans come back after the election and the tilt of new members that could change. If O’Neal loses supporters—and we don’t, of course, know who they are because of the secret caucus ballot, but close observers have some ideas—and a new candidate gains supporters, the leadership could change.
O’Neal might pick up supporters, might lose supporters, that’s the effect of those GOP primary elections and the general election to follow.
How’s that change everything? Well, the Speaker makes all appointments to House committees, and it’s not only logical but politically bright to assign members who agree with the speaker on key issues as committee chairs, and load up the committee with like-thinking members so bills that emerge or don’t from the committee are the way the speaker wants them.
Sound like that “closed-door room, insider politics” that voters gripe about? Sure is. But it is also just plain political common sense. If a speaker doesn’t have the sense to load committees to produce bills that he or she believes are right for the state, well, he/she probably ought to just stay home sorting empty wine bottles by color for recycling instead of getting into politics.
Know what else insiders are watching for? The chance for a surprise on the first day of the 2011 session, when all 125 members of the House—Republicans and Democrats—vote to confirm each caucuses’ selections for leaders. It’s always been cut-and dried unanimous, Democrats OK the Republican leader nominees, Republicans OK the Democratic caucus leadership nominees.
But—and this is something insiders can’t really get a feel for yet—there’s the chance that Republicans who voted against the GOP caucus-nominated speaker, and Democrats, of course, could reject the nominee and come up with their own Speaker-and elect him or her on the first day of the 2011 session.
That has been talked about for years, but has never happened. So-called “moderate Republicans” and Democrats the past two years have on key budget and tax issues taken control of the House away from O’Neal—outvoting him and his team. They’re feeling a little empowered, maybe head-strong, and might actually try it this coming session.
Then, things get interesting…
July 15, 2010
(Syndicated to Kansas newspapers July 12, 2010)The next four weeks…
We’re now in the four weeks in which Statehouse insiders hold their breath and wonder if they’ll be able to tell what the general philosophy of the Kansas House of Representatives is going to be in the next two years.
Individual voters plight their troth with one state representative while the governor, lobbyists, state agency chiefs—and to some degree, the Kansas Senate—look at the House issue-by-issue as one unit of government.
That’s why senators in the middle of their four-year terms are intensely interested in how the primary election turns out. It gives lobbyists and special interest groups a chance to assess prospects for issues that they support, ranging from reproductive issues to specific tax issues to changes in school law, insurance regulations and such.
For the past eight years, it’s basically been the governor and the Senate and a combination of Democrats and moderate Republicans in the House who have run the state. They’ve had the votes to get most of their moderate agenda through the Legislature using just that coalition.
But, everything changes—maybe—depending on which Republicans make it through the Aug. 3 primary election and what happens to the delicate balance in the House. Essentially, the entire face of Kansas state government could change, good for some, not good for others.
Practically, Kansas is a Republican state, and in many districts, the winner of the Republican primary is the odds-on winner of the House seat.
But—and Democrats have used this to their advantage for years—there is always a chance that the Republican nominee is way too conservative, way too opinionated or just doesn’t seem to be a good fit for the district. That’s when voters in a majority Republican district may elect a Democrat. There are quite a few Democrats in the Kansas House who represent majority-Republican districts.
So, while most Kansans are sizing up the candidate they see on their doorsteps, there are folks who are looking for trends, for the House as a whole.And that trend will be established to a large degree in the Republican primaries. Gripe about the 1-cent sales tax? Sounds good, but nobody believes the Legislature is going to raise taxes again. Just won’t happen. One man-one woman marriages? The issue is settled at the state level, any changes or interpretations of that issue will come through the courts, not the Legislature.
What’s it looking like to people who deal with the Legislature as a whole? Unclear. Very unclear.
The insiders expect anti-tax, anti-spending gambits to work in a lot of districts at the primary election level. It’s going to take a dab more finesse at the general election, because there’s no sense that taxes are going up again, or that spending isn’t going to be cut more in the next session. It’s the primary hurdle that will set the stage for the real election.These next few weeks may well tell the story of just what sort of House the insiders are going to deal with for the next two years.
July 8, 2010
(Syndicated to Kansas newspapers July 5, 2010)What’s your question?
Interesting couple weeks coming up…it’s primary election campaign season for dozens of Kansas House districts and one Senate district, where the winners of the primary go on to the November general election—the big dance…
Expect to see candidates in local parades, at old settlers’ day events and other community festivities, and count on most of them to quickly mention downsizing government or reeling in spending or rolling back taxes.
Those generalities—which nobody really disagrees with—make a decent little spiel while the candidates are on the front stoop, wondering whether you’re actually going to open the screen door so that they can hand in their palm card with their picture on the front and the picture of their family, or their farm, on the back.
Remember: Everyone is in favor of gentle rain…unless they’ve left the sunroof open. See how that changes things?
If the candidate is lucky enough to catch you at dinner, or during a commercial break on TV, you can nod, take the card and shut the door.
But if you have a minute, it’s probably worthwhile to not let the candidate get away with just pleasantries…unless you really don’t care who represents you and your neighbors or you tend to vote based on party affiliation or height or weight.
If there’s a local issue, ask about it.
But you might want to start thinking about some question or another just to see how the candidate responds. Legalize medical marijuana? Increase taxes on cigarettes or alcohol? Require that Kansas wineries use Kansas-grown grapes? Immigration really isn’t a state-legislature issue, but something about proof of citizenship?
Here’s the deal: The candidate may have a position or at least talk intelligently about your favorite issue or show initiative by learning about it and getting back to you. It shows a level of interaction and service that you’d probably want from your legislator.
If the candidate just wanders away, well, that tells you something, too, doesn’t it?
No need to spend a lot of time with the screen door open letting out your conditioned air, but we’ll bet in maybe a minute, you can find out how serious the candidate is, what his/her interests are, and maybe start someone thinking about an issue he or she has never considered before.
Think of it as a low-level stress test for the candidate…one that most lawmakers admit that they’ve faced when voting in committee or on the floor of the House or Senate in debate.
July 1, 2010
(Syndicated to Kansas newspapers June 28, 2010)Summer fun
There’s nothing quite so entertaining as a “straw poll” when it comes to political events.
It’s “straw” which, of course, means that it’s not a professional, take-it-to-the-bank with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. But it’s fun to see the results and figure out just who showed up for that straw poll and compute backwards to see what it represents.
The results, of course, also depend on just who’s in the field for that straw poll.Last weekend, the Olathe Republican Party organization held its annual picnic/straw poll in, well, extremely politically conservative Olathe. For some reason, and we’re not sure that it isn’t an obscure zoning ordinance, Olathe turns out some of the most conservative of Republicans in eastern Kansas.
So, at last weekend’s straw poll sponsored by the Olathe Republican Party, it appeared that if you aren’t conservative enough—at least in Olathe—a candidate might just as well save the energy of planting yard signs.
The results of that GOP straw poll? Well, U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., is a shoo-in to carry the primary for governor. Joan Heffington? She’ll be on the statewide ballot, but of those straw poll participants, Brownback won the tiff, 307 to 23.
The interesting race in Olathe? Probably that U.S. Rep. Todd Tiahrt, R-Kan., from Sedgwick County, out straw-polled U.S. Rep. Jerry Moran, R-Kan., from Hays, by nearly three-to-one, 315 to 112.
What’s that mean? Probably that in the conservative pocket of generally moderate Republican Johnson County, Tiahrt has a base to grow from between now and the Aug. 3 GOP primary election. Does he sweep Johnson County, or Kansas by that margin? Of course not, but how’d you like to be a Tiahrt activist anywhere in the state with that number to toss around at parties and among your friends?
Drop, or maybe just say quickly and quietly the word “straw,” and you’ve given a Republican primary voter a reason to vote Tiahrt, just for the bragging right of being on what appears to be the winning side of a primary election tiff.
Or, if you’re a Moran partisan, you can emphasize the words “straw” and “Olathe” and try to take the wind out the Tiahrt crew’s sails.
That’s some of the fun of those straw polls. Besides giving people a reason to get out on a hot Saturday afternoon and trade political gossip and whatnot, it also gives campaigns a reason to show up and talk to voters, demonstrate that face-to-face both candidates for the Senate seat that Brownback is giving up are pretty decent folks, the sort you’d sweat and eat a hamburger with.Do straw polls tell us much? Probably not. But they are a good excuse for the politically minded to get together and meet each other, trade information and find out if there are specific issues that one candidate or the other favors that will win hearts and minds—and maybe real, solid primary election votes in August.